DO CYBER CAPABILITIES IMPROVESTABILITY?

PS370F

PROF. BENJAMIN BARTLETT

MIAMI UNIVERSITY

THREE REASONS CONFLICT MAY BREAK OUT

  1. Information problems.
  2. Lack of better alternatives.
  3. Lowcostofaggression.

COULD CYBER MAKE THINGS MORE STABLE?

  1. Informationprovision.
  2. Substitution.
  3. Deterrence.

INFORMATION PROBLEMS

  1. Obvious problem: may misunderstand intentions.
    • In this case, using cyber to spy may reassure one side aboutthe other’s intentions.
  2. Lessobviousproblem (from bargaining theory ofwar): private information and incentives tomisrepresent.

PRIVATE INFORMATION

  1. Basic setup: there is always a bargain that is better than war, but itis based on the probability each side will win.
  2. StateA thinks it has an 80% chance towin, so will offer a bargainthat reflects this.
  3. But, StateB has upgraded its military, knows it has a 50% chancetowin, so will not accept the bargain. But why does State B not justtell State A the truth?

INCENTIVES TO MISREPRESENT

What if State A really does have an 80% chance to win?

  1. State B might lie and claim it has a 50% chance towin. Ifitcould convince A this is the case, would have to give away less.
  2. So State A cannot tell if State B is lying or not; as a result abargain cannot be reached and war occurs.

BUT WHAT IF WE HAVE CYBER CAPABILITIES?

  1. Now State A can easily and cheaply spy onState B, and find out its true capabilities!
  2. State Awillproposethecorrectbargain,andwarwillnotbreakout.

INFORMATION PROVISION

  1. Cause of war: misunderstanding or fearingintentions
      • →can use cyber to determine actualintentions
  2. Causeof war: concealing actual capabilities.
      • →can use cyber to determine actualcapabilities

LACK OF ALTERNATIVES

  1. Sometimes one actor will risk a military strikebecause there are no obvious alternatives.
  2. Example:Israel’s military strike on suspectedSyrian nuclear reactor.
  3. This can easily escalate.

SUBSTITUTION

Cyber could reduce conflict by giving states analternative to a military attack.

LOW COST OF AGGRESSION

  1. Conflictmayoccursimplybecausestrongstatesfacelittleconsequenceforusingforceagainstweakstates.
  2. Weakerstates do not pose enough of a threat todiscourage them.

DETERRENCE

  1. The fact that even weaker states can now potentiallycause significant damage may deter stronger statesfrom attacking them.
  2. Uncertaintymayhelphere:hardforthestrongerstatetoknowwhattheweaker one is truly capableof.

CONCLUSION

Cyber capabilities may be stabilizing for three reasons:

  1. Information provision.
  2. Substitution.
  3. Deterrence.