A QUICK REVIEW OFOFFENSE-DEFENSE THEORY

POLITICS OF CYBERSECURITY

PROF. BENJAMIN BARTLETT

MIAMI UNIVERSITY

DEFINITION: SECURITY DILEMMA

Image Source: Dr. Seuss,The Butter Battle.

TWO MAJOR ISSUES

Does offense or defense have the advantage inconflict (offense-defense balance)?
Can we tell the difference between offensiveand defensive postures (offense-defensedifferentiation)?

THE FOUR WORLDS (JERVIS 1978)

Offense Has the Advantage	Defense Has the Advantage
Offensive Posture notDistinguishable from DefensiveOne	Doubly Dangerous (security dilemma + relativelyhigh probability of conflict)	Security dilemma, but relativelylow probability of conflict
Offensive Posture Distinguishablefrom Defensive One	No security dilemma, butsomewhat-heightened probabilityof conflict	Doubly Stable (no security dilemma and lowprobability of conflict)

MEASURING THE OFFENSE-DEFENSE BALANCE

Does it cost more to build offensive or defensivecapabilities?
Given the same set of capabilities, is it better toattack or to defend?

WHAT AFFECTS THE OFFENSE DEFENSE BALANCE

Technology: which is more costly---offensivetechnologies or defensive technologies? Whichmore effective?
Geography: this can favor offense or defense

DETERMINING OFFENSE-DEFENSE DIFFERENTIATION

In the main, determined by technology.
May also be determined by differences in militarydoctrine (certain doctrines/strategies may be moreinherently offensive than others), though whether thisis possible is in part due to technology.

ADDITIONAL ADVANTAGES OF OFFENSE-DEFENSEDIFFERENTIATION

Status quo states can identify each other.
Advanced warning of aggression.
Arms control agreements are easy.

CONCLUSION

Offense Has the Advantage	Defense Has the Advantage
Offensive Posture notDistinguishable from DefensiveOne	Doubly Dangerous (security dilemma + relativelyhigh probability of conflict)	Security dilemma, but relativelylow probability of conflict
Offensive Posture Distinguishablefrom Defensive One	No security dilemma, butsomewhat-heightened probabilityof conflict	Doubly Stable (no security dilemma and lowprobability of conflict)